In mid-February 2026, two separate mass shootings happened within four days of each other. Eight people died. The shooters shared certain characteristics that lit up every corner of the internet and cable news. And then, as tends to happen in this country, the news cycle moved on. But the details of what happened — and the larger context around gun violence in America right now — are worth sitting with for a minute.
What Happened on February 16 in Rhode Island
On February 16, 2026, a 56-year-old named Robert Dorgan — who also went by Roberta Esposito after undergoing gender reassignment surgery in 2020 — walked into an ice rink in Rhode Island and opened fire. Dorgan killed his ex-wife and one of his own children before turning the gun on himself. Three dead, just like that, at a place where kids go to learn to skate.
Dorgan had a documented history of mental illness, including narcissistic personality disorder traits. His gender identity had been a point of contention during his divorce. That detail became a flashpoint in the political aftermath — more on that below.
The Democratic governor of Rhode Island issued a statement about the shooting but did not address Dorgan’s mental illness or transgender identity. Whether that was an intentional omission or just standard political caution, it only fueled more arguments online.
Before Came February 10 — This Time in Canada
Four days earlier, on February 10, an 18-year-old named Jesse Van Rootselaar — who had identified as a girl since age 12 — killed his mother and stepbrother before driving to a secondary school in Canada and opening fire. Six people died at the school: children aged 11 to 13. Van Rootselaar had a history of mental health issues and had been apprehended by police multiple times for assessment under the Mental Health Act.
So within the span of less than a week, two mass shooters — both transgender, both with documented mental health histories — killed a combined eight people. It was impossible for the media or the public to ignore the overlap.
The Political Firestorm That Followed
You can probably guess what happened next. Conservative commentators pointed to the shooters’ gender identities and asked why the media wasn’t treating it as a pattern. Progressive commentators pushed back hard, arguing that cherry-picking two incidents to demonize transgender people was dangerous and unsupported by data. Researchers weighed in to say that the data does not support a direct link between transgender identity and increased violence.
Both sides had points. Both sides also had blind spots. What got buried in all of it was the actual tragedy — families destroyed, kids who went to school and didn’t come home, communities that will never feel the same way about places they used to take for granted.
This is what always happens with mass shootings in America. The event itself lasts minutes. The debate lasts weeks. And the grief lasts forever, mostly in private, mostly unnoticed by the people arguing about it on TV.
Where 2026 Gun Violence Stands Right Now
Here’s something that might surprise you: gun violence in 2026 is actually down compared to recent years. According to first-quarter data, the United States recorded 3,103 shooting deaths in Q1 2026 — the lowest first-quarter number in a dozen years. That’s a decline of almost 500 shooting deaths compared to Q1 2025, and way below the Q1 figures from 2021 through 2023, which topped 4,600 deaths each.
Year-to-date deaths are down 866 and injuries are down 1,901 compared to the same period in prior years. Mass shootings have declined to what the Gun Violence Archive describes as pre-COVID levels.
But here’s the thing about statistics: they don’t feel like much when you’re the one at the ice rink or in the classroom. The numbers are better. The reality on the ground still includes 105 mass shootings in just the first three and a half months of the year, 3,571 deaths, and 6,150 injuries.
Mass Shootings Are Only a Fraction of the Problem
This is the part that rarely makes it into the national conversation. Mass shootings — the kind that dominate headlines and cable news — account for just 3.6 percent of all shooting deaths tracked by GVA in 2026. That means more than 95 percent of gun violence in this country happens quietly. A man shot outside a gas station at 2 a.m. A teenager killed in a dispute nobody will remember. A domestic violence incident that ends with a gunshot.
The deadliest single day of Q1 2026 was March 22, which saw 72 shooting deaths. Those included a 16-year-old allegedly killing a 15-year-old in Richmond, Virginia, a woman allegedly killed by her boyfriend in Kansas City, and a UPS driver — a father of three — shot in the head in Chicago while tracking a stolen truck. No day in Q1 2026 had fewer than 18 shooting deaths. Not one.
Americans bought an estimated 3.9 million guns in Q1 2026, consistent with the past two years. The country currently has over 350 million firearms in civilian ownership. That’s more guns than people.
School Shootings in 2026
As of late March 2026, there have been up to 47 incidents where guns were brandished with intent or fired on K-12 and college campuses. When you narrow it down to incidents that actually resulted in injuries or deaths, the number drops to somewhere between 8 and 12, depending on whose definition you use.
A couple of the worst: At South Carolina State University on February 12, a shooting in a campus residential building left two people dead and one injured during what appears to have been a marijuana sale between a student and three non-students. On March 12, a former Virginia National Guard member — who had a criminal history involving attempted assistance to ISIS — opened fire on an ROTC classroom at Old Dominion University, killing an Army lieutenant colonel and injuring two others.
At the K-12 level, a 16-year-old shot another student inside Wootton High School in Maryland on February 11 using a ghost gun — a privately built firearm with no serial number and no paper trail.
School shootings hit an all-time high from 2023 to 2024, with up to 352 incidents at K-12 schools. A decline began in 2025, and so far 2026 is continuing that downward trend. There have been no large-scale mass shooting events at K-12 schools this year. That’s good news. The fact that we’re relieved when only a handful of kids get shot at school tells you something about where we are as a country.
Federal Policy Changes Under the Trump Administration
While all of this has been happening, the federal government has been making some big moves on gun policy. In January 2026, the Trump administration declared that a 99-year-old law prohibiting handguns and other concealable firearms from being mailed through the U.S. Postal Service is unconstitutional, and directed federal law enforcement not to enforce it.
Trump’s proposed FY 2026 budget includes a $468 million reduction to the ATF’s budget. The administration reportedly reassigned 80 percent of ATF’s special agents to immigration enforcement. Licensed gun dealers who previously had their licenses revoked under a “zero tolerance” policy may now reapply and potentially reopen their businesses.
Gun safety groups are alarmed. Whether you think these changes are reasonable or reckless probably depends on where you already stood on gun policy. But the timing — gutting ATF enforcement capacity while mass shootings continue to make headlines — is hard to ignore.
The Pattern That Keeps Repeating
The Rockefeller Institute has tracked 511 mass public shootings from 1966 to the present. Those 511 events killed 1,728 people and produced 4,443 total victims. On average, 3.4 people are killed and 5.3 are injured per event. When people are hit in a mass shooting, they’re actually more likely to be injured than killed — a trend that’s held since the mid-1980s.
One detail from the data that sticks with me: the timing of mass shootings mirrors the routine patterns of the locations where they happen. School shootings cluster around arrival, lunch, and dismissal times. Shootings at places of worship happen most often on Sunday mornings. The violence fits itself into our schedules, like some terrible parallel version of daily life.
What Happens After the Shock Wears Off
The RAND Corporation published a major report in January 2026 about the state of mass shooting research. One of its key findings is something researchers have been saying for years: we still don’t have a standard definition of what a mass shooting even is. The Gun Violence Archive says four or more shot. The Congressional Research Service says four or more killed. Mother Jones uses another definition entirely. Every time you see a number — “105 mass shootings this year” or “6 mass murders” — remember that the number changes depending on who’s counting and how.
That definitional chaos makes it incredibly hard to study what works and what doesn’t when it comes to prevention. And until researchers can agree on what they’re measuring, policymakers are essentially flying blind.
So here we are. Gun violence is down from its pandemic-era highs. Mass shootings are still happening at a pace of roughly one per day under the broadest definitions. Two back-to-back incidents in February shocked the nation, sparked a political fight, and then faded from the front page. And 18 people — at minimum — die from gunshots every single day in this country, most of them in incidents that never make the news at all.
The shock wears off. The numbers don’t.
