Approximately 6 percent of verified 2024 Trump voters now deny having cast their ballots for him, according to a sweeping new survey that tracked more than 12,000 respondents over several months. The finding, drawn from a collaboration between polling firm Verasight and The Argument, offers a striking window into how voter sentiment can shift — and how people rewrite their own political histories when dissatisfaction sets in.
The survey contacted 12,180 respondents between August 2025 and February 2026, all of whom had also been polled the day after the November 2024 election about their vote choice. That baseline data, recorded in real time rather than recalled months later, gave researchers a rare ability to measure exactly how many people changed their story. Among Trump voters who now deny supporting him, 2.7 percent falsely claim they voted for Kamala Harris, while 3.3 percent say they voted for neither major candidate.
Pollsters have a name for this phenomenon: recall bias. It describes the tendency of voters to misremember or deny past choices when they grow unhappy with a candidate’s performance. The pattern is not unique to Trump, but the scale of the current shift is notable given the size of his electoral coalition — nearly 80 million Americans voted for him on November 5, 2024, as White House spokesperson Davis Ingle pointed out in response to the polling.
The data reveals a sharp divide between Trump supporters who still approve of his presidency and those who do not. Among voters who continue to back him, 98 percent correctly recalled voting for him, with only tiny fractions claiming otherwise. However, roughly 15 percent of Trump’s 2024 voters reported disapproving of his job performance. Within that disaffected group, the numbers shift dramatically: 12.5 percent falsely claimed to have voted for Harris, and 11.8 percent said they did not vote for either candidate.
The recall bias cuts both ways. Among nonvoters or third-party voters who now approve of Trump, a remarkable 43 percent falsely claim they voted for him, compared to just 5 percent of those who disapprove. Similarly, 18 percent of Harris voters who now approve of Trump falsely recalled casting their ballots for him, while only 0.4 percent of Harris voters who disapprove of Trump made that false claim.
These shifts in self-reported voting history come against a backdrop of declining approval ratings for the president. A Washington Post–ABC News poll put Trump’s disapproval at 60 percent, described as his highest since the January 6 Capitol attack. An average compiled by Cook Political Report placed his overall approval at 41 percent with 57 percent disapproval.
Economic anxiety appears to be a major driver. YouGov/Economist polling showed Trump’s net approval on the economy plunged from plus 12 points to minus 23 points since the start of his second term. His net approval on immigration experienced a similar reversal, dropping from plus 11 points to minus 11 points. A Wall Street Journal poll found 56 percent of voters said Trump does not have the right priorities, and 58 percent disapproved of his handling of inflation.
The economic picture is mixed but clearly weighing on public sentiment. Consumer price inflation ran between 2.4 and 2.7 percent in 2025, and food prices rose 2.4 percent in the first year of Trump’s second term. Gas prices fell modestly from approximately $3.12 per gallon on Inauguration Day to roughly $2.95, but job creation in 2025 totaled only about 181,000 positions. An Economist/YouGov survey found 69 percent of respondents rated the economy as fair or poor, with half saying it was getting worse.
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court struck down the most expansive part of Trump’s tariff regime, adding legal setbacks to the administration’s economic challenges. Reuters/Ipsos polling showed just 40 percent approval for Trump’s handling of the economy, while AP-NORC found an even lower 36 percent.
A Marist poll conducted in late January found that 55 percent of Americans said Trump is moving the country in a direction that represents change for the worse, up from 51 percent in April 2025. Surveys have also indicated Trump is losing support among young men, Hispanic voters, and non-college-educated Americans — the very voter groups that powered his 2024 victory.
For pollsters and political strategists, the recall bias phenomenon complicates efforts to understand the true state of the electorate. When voters deny their own choices, it distorts not only historical analysis but also forward-looking projections. The gap between what people did in the voting booth and what they now say they did may be one of the most telling measures of a presidency under pressure.
