The two month old war between the United States and Iran has been in a strange holding pattern since early April. A ceasefire that was supposed to create space for talks has instead created something closer to a staring contest, with both sides daring the other to blink. Now, that staring contest might be about to end. On April 30, President Trump sat down with CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs for a 45-minute briefing on fresh military options against Iran. The options on the table aren’t vague contingencies. They’re specific, actionable, and reportedly ready to go.
Three Military Plans Are Sitting on Trump’s Desk
The briefing wasn’t a general “what could we do” kind of meeting. CENTCOM came with three distinct plans, each designed to break the negotiating deadlock with Tehran that’s now dragged on for weeks.
The first is what sources described as a “short and powerful” wave of strikes on Iranian targets. This would likely include infrastructure, not just military sites. Think power grids, bridges, things that hurt. The logic is straightforward: hit Iran hard enough that they come back to the negotiating table willing to actually make concessions on the nuclear issue.
The second plan is more ambitious. It involves taking control of parts of the Strait of Hormuz itself to physically reopen it to commercial shipping. This one could require ground forces, which makes it a much bigger commitment and a much bigger risk.
The third option is a special forces raid to secure Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. That’s the kind of mission that sounds like it belongs in a movie, but apparently the Pentagon thinks it’s feasible enough to put in front of the President.
Trump Says the Blockade Is Working, But He’s Not Ruling Anything Out
Trump told reporters on April 29 that he currently views the naval blockade on Iran as “somewhat more effective than the bombing.” He’s described it as his primary source of leverage, and there’s some logic to that. The U.S. launched a counter-blockade on April 13 targeting all ships trying to reach Iranian ports. Combined with Iran’s own closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian economy is under serious pressure.
But two sources told reporters that Trump would consider military action if Iran doesn’t shift its position soon. He’s been here before. Back on April 22, Trump gave Iran “three to five days” to get its internal politics sorted out and return to serious negotiations. One U.S. source put it bluntly: “It is not going to be open-ended.” That was more than a week ago, and Iran hasn’t budged.
The pattern with Trump has been consistent throughout this conflict. He sets deadlines, extends them, then sets new ones. He threatened massive attacks on March 21, then March 23, then April 7. Each time, he ultimately pulled back. But each time, the options he’s considering seem to get more aggressive, not less.
Iran Is Already Preparing for the Worst
Tehran isn’t sitting around waiting to see what happens. On the night of April 30, air defense activity was heard in the Iranian capital. Iran’s semi-official news agencies reported that air defenses were engaging small drones and unmanned surveillance vehicles. Whether these were American reconnaissance assets testing Iranian defenses or something else entirely isn’t clear, but the timing is hard to ignore.
Iran’s response to the threat has been defiant. A senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps official warned that any new U.S. attack, even a limited one, would trigger “long and painful strikes” on American regional positions. Iranian aerospace force commander Majid Mousavi was even more direct: “We’ve seen what happened to your regional bases. We will see the same thing happen to your warships.”
That’s not an empty threat. Earlier in the war, Iranian missile and drone strikes hit U.S. facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, and Qatar. Key radar systems and other equipment were damaged. Pentagon officials told Congress the war has already cost an estimated $25 billion, mostly in munitions, and a full accounting of the damage to overseas bases hasn’t even been completed yet.
The War Powers Clock Is Ticking
There’s a legal dimension to all of this that doesn’t get enough attention. Under the 1973 War Powers Resolution, the President has to withdraw U.S. forces 60 days after notifying Congress of their deployment, unless Congress authorizes the military action. Trump sent that notification letter on March 2, which means the 60-day deadline hit on May 1.
Congress has not authorized this war. That should be a big deal. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s argument to Congress is that the ceasefire effectively pauses the War Powers clock. In other words, if we’re not actively fighting, the 60 days don’t count. It’s a creative legal theory, to put it politely. Whether it holds up is another question entirely, and plenty of lawmakers aren’t buying it.
Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal said he had the “impression from some of the briefings” that “an imminent military strike is very much on the table.” He called the prospect “deeply disturbing” because of the potential for American and massive civilian casualties. But Congress has shown no real appetite to force the issue, and the legal arguments are likely to stay in the background while the military ones take center stage.
Nobody in Tehran Can Actually Make a Deal
One of the most underreported parts of this whole situation is that Iran might not even have anyone capable of agreeing to a deal right now. The original Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed in the February 28 strikes that started the war. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, replaced him, but by all accounts he’s barely functioning as a leader.
U.S. officials have described an “absolute fracture” inside Iran between the civilian negotiators and the IRGC generals who now control the country. Neither side has real access to the new Supreme Leader, who reportedly isn’t responsive to either camp. So even if Trump’s pressure tactics work and Iran decides it wants to make a deal, there may not be anyone empowered to say yes.
The IRGC generals and the civilian government are openly fighting over strategy. The civilians want to negotiate. The military wants to rebuild Iran’s missile and drone stockpiles during the ceasefire and come back stronger. U.S. intelligence, according to Senator John Kennedy, indicates Tehran has been doing exactly that, aiming to build a deterrent so large that the U.S. wouldn’t dare strike again.
The Strait of Hormuz Remains the Core Issue
Everything keeps coming back to the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, about 20% of the world’s petroleum and 20% of its liquefied natural gas moved through this narrow waterway. Around 3,000 vessels used it every month. As of early May, traffic is at roughly 5% of normal levels.
The economic consequences have been enormous. U.S. gas prices hit a national average of $4.14 per gallon, up nearly 39% from the $2.98 average before the war started. Oil prices have been swinging wildly, hitting $117 a barrel before the ceasefire announcement knocked them back down to around $103.
Iran’s position on the strait has hardened, not softened. Their parliament passed legislation formalizing tolls on vessels transiting the waterway, with some reports citing fees as high as $1 million per ship. Mojtaba Khamenei warned that foreigners who enter the strait risk ending up “at the bottom of its waters.” Iran’s foreign ministry has called the closure “legitimate, legal, and accepted” under international law. The UAE has banned its citizens from traveling to Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq.
Meanwhile, China’s independent refiners have been quietly keeping Iran financially afloat. These so-called “teapot” refiners imported a record 1.8 million barrels per day from Iran in March 2026, providing Tehran with a cash lifeline despite everything.
Both Sides Are Miles Apart on a Deal
The gap between what the U.S. wants and what Iran wants is enormous. The American proposal includes an end to Iran’s nuclear program, limits on its missiles, reopening the strait, restrictions on Iran’s support for armed groups, and sanctions relief. Iran rejected all of it.
Iran’s counter-proposal includes an end to all U.S. and Israeli attacks, security guarantees, war reparations, and international recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. They’re also asking for $270 billion in damages. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said reparations are the “only way” to end the conflict. Vice President JD Vance responded that Iran must “act like a normal country” before the U.S. treats it like one economically.
Neither side has shown any sign of moving toward the other. Pakistan’s mediators have been trying, but the April 10 meeting between Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, and their Iranian counterparts was canceled by Trump himself. The IAEA has warned that any agreement without nuclear inspection provisions would be “an illusion of an agreement.”
What Happens Next
Here’s where things stand as of May 1, 2026. Trump has been briefed on three specific military options. The ceasefire is technically still in place but increasingly meaningless. The War Powers Resolution deadline has arrived with no congressional authorization. Iran is rebuilding its arsenal and refusing to budge. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed. And gas prices keep climbing.
Multiple U.S. officials have noted that Trump actually wants out of this war. It’s become increasingly unpopular at home, it’s expensive, and the $25 billion price tag is only going up. But wanting out and being able to get out are two very different things when the other side won’t negotiate and your only real leverage is the threat of more violence.
The question isn’t really whether new strikes are possible. The question is whether Trump sees any other path to forcing a deal. Right now, based on everything coming out of Washington and Tehran, the answer appears to be no. And that means the next few days could determine whether this war restarts in full.
